Saturday, July 12, 2008

What explains the Obama phenomenon?

The polls still show Obama with a significant lead over McCain.

That, despite his long and close associations with Rezkos, Wrights, and Ayres. That, despite the flip flops on NAFTA, public financing, Iraq and surveillance. That despite his comments on guns and faith.

Come to think of it, Obama has no resume other than a speech he made in 2002 (he never voted according to his convictions on Iraq war). And he really has nothing to offer other than hope.

What hope?

That he will get jobs back to the US. That he will improve the schools and the hospitals and infrastructure. That the US will usher into a green energy revolution.

And how will he do that?

Here's where you hear the deafening silence. There are no plans. Just hopes. Of course there's this plan to tax the oil companies because of their record profits. And to tax the wealthy.

While I truly believe that just like you can't drill your way out of the energy crisis, you can't tax your way out of this economic crisis, I will focus on the other important question - what makes Obama so appealing to the voters?

Firstly, people are very outward-looking. They get easily swayed by looks and appearance. Obama is a fairly decent looking guy. He dresses well. And yeah, he speaks well (you could contrast him with Hillary who used to stretch her sentences like "And we will go all the wayyyyyyyy", and McCain who, my friends, speaks like a sad man).

Secondly Obama knows that blaming the current administration always works because people are generally fed up or just bored with the current administration. It just helps more when you have an economic, housing and energy crisis at hand. And if you blame them long enough, people actually start believing that.

Thirdly, Obama knows that if you promise people the good life (with great schools, hospitals and infrastructure, and jobs and high tech jobs in green energy, and cheap energy etc) they will like you without questioning. (They don't trust the Nigerian emails where they are promised a share of millions of dollars if they could claim the money in a Nigerian bank, but they will gladly trust a politician without question).

It just helps that Obama is 46 and McCain is turning 72. The ageism is on his side.

Obama has very carefully cultivated a rock-star image, playing basketball and pool for photo ops and playing rock music in his meetings. He knows that the American youth can be easily impressed with these symbols of Americana, and since the young tend to earn less, the promise of taxing "them" just impresses them more.

He speaks nice to each community. He talks about going easy and diplomatic with Iran, yet talks about protecting Jerusalem to Jews. He talks about nuclear energy to everyone but no Yucca Mountain in Nevadans.

Overall, Obama comes across as a very shrewd politician who plays his cards extremely well. Whatever might be Obama's negatives, you can't deny that he is one of the most clever and calculative politicians of recent times.

And at least that is a good thing.

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